Just eight weeks in the past that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager scolded him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were a sign or the reason of the side's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, though, the touchline reaction was much more joyous. As the in-form star curled home his brace-sealing goal to restore the lead for Villa, Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their initial half-dozen matches, now sit just three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Challengers?
This is a particularly tough proposition to resolve. The historical record, the traditional standing of Villa, argues against it. Additionally, they've rarely been wholly dominant during this run, despite the fact the victories have stacked up.
Per the data, in only two games has the side posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side which has just won ten consecutive victories, Villa look strangely fragile – however currently the margins are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy seems to be to trade blows with rivals before hoping Rogers to save the day with two precise efforts. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and again against United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, curled right inside the upright from the edge of the area. For his second acted as a slight scruffier version of his first capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opponents registered more efforts and more shots on target. Villa have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those games.
A statistical correction may well be the greatest opponent they will encounter over the coming weeks. The forward, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling his shots past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is a different scenario in which, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward could start adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent might become the performer he resembled during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are set to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a periodically leaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the seeds for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, nobody expected this. Few believed Aston Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt two months ago, no one envisioned the young forward by the end of the year would be leading a hunt for the title and appearing as an essential player for the national team.
The current run is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. As the hero faced the home supporters at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
